Rolling Cash Forecast Doubles Payroll Cushion for LTL Transportation Logistics Carrier

Service: Financial Planning & Strategy, Core CFO Services
Client: LTL Transportation Logistics Carrier | Arlington, TX | S-corp | 28 employees | $4.7 million revenue

Introduction

Managing cash flow in the transportation and logistics industry isn’t for the faint of heart. Freight delays, rising fuel costs, and unpredictable revenue cycles can turn payroll into a high-stakes juggling act, especially for Less-Than-Load carriers looking to scale.

This North Texas-based S-corp had 28 employees and $4.7 million in annual revenue. As the company grew, so did the pressure. Drivers needed to be paid on time. Vendors expected faster payments. Missed forecasts often meant missed opportunities. Their outdated budget and static cash model couldn’t keep up with today’s volatility.

That’s when Stratovus stepped in with a hands-on, data-driven approach to rolling cash forecasts, financial planning, and real-time metrics dashboards.

Why This LTL Carrier Needed a New Financial Playbook

Before our engagement, the owner and their small finance team were dealing with three persistent problems:

• Payroll Panic: Cash balances fluctuated from week to week. Leadership worried constantly about whether there would be enough to cover the next payroll.
• Payables Pile-Up: Vendor payments were frequently late, sometimes by multiple cycles, putting discounts at risk and damaging supplier relationships.
• Blind Spots: Their “budget” was a static spreadsheet that wasn’t updated regularly. They lacked a true cash model, and the monthly variance between plan and actuals often exceeded $120,000.

Despite healthy top-line revenue, the business operated with little forward visibility, leaving leadership in a reactive mode.

Building a Rolling Cash Forecast: The Game Changer

We began with a full diagnostic: interviewing leadership, mapping out payment cycles, and auditing the chart of accounts to identify recurring surprises like fuel, tires, tolls, and insurance.

Key Actions Taken

• Built a 13-week rolling cash forecast, updated weekly, accounting for every inflow and outflow including payroll, linehaul settlements, and fuel surcharges.
• Added payroll cushion analysis. We set a mandatory cash threshold of $95,000 on payroll weeks to ensure stability and DOT compliance.
• Prioritized vendor payments. Each payable was ranked by urgency and importance, enabling the client to capture early pay discounts.
• Launched a real-time metrics dashboard showing cash on hand, AR aging, fuel efficiency, revenue per mile, and budget-to-actual comparisons.

Proof in Numbers

From Reactive to Proactive: Results and Impact

1. Payroll Confidence and Operational Stability
   With a real-time cash model in place, leadership no longer worried about covering payroll. There were no more last-minute line-of-credit draws or emergency cuts. Drivers and dispatchers were paid reliably, which helped retain talent in a competitive labor market.
2. Stronger Vendor Relationships
   Improved visibility into payables allowed the business to get ahead of payment cycles. Vendors noticed. The company negotiated better terms, gained access to priority service, and even expedited parts turnaround times.
3. Fuel Savings and Operational Efficiency
   The dashboard revealed inefficiencies in routing. After adjustments, the company reduced empty miles by 8 percent and lowered monthly fuel costs by nearly $1,900.
4. Smarter Decision-Making
   Monthly leadership meetings included a review of forecast-to-actual results. With tighter budget control, they could plan with confidence, hiring new drivers, purchasing trucks, and locking in fuel contracts without second-guessing.
5. A Cultural Shift: Precision. Vision. Action.
   This wasn’t just about spreadsheets. The entire team adopted a new rhythm. They checked the dashboard, adjusted the forecast, and made decisions with confidence. This new cadence became part of the culture.

Conclusion

For LTL carriers and transportation companies, cash forecasting is more than a spreadsheet exercise. It’s essential to survival and growth. With the right tools and a partner who takes a hands-on approach, even mid-sized operators can shift from constant reaction to long-term strategy.